Q: How Do I Know that My Blog Entries are On Point?
I am keeping with my new tradition of keeping my Friday entries light and/or humorous. Last Friday, I blogged about Chris Gardner. This week, I really wasn’t sure what to write about until God gave me the idea. I wanted to respond to a very, succinct comment today about my Tuesday blog entry titled “How Will the Changing Global Economy Affect the Evolution of Your Blog?”. One comment sent to me about that particular blog entry was a mere three words:” You’re an idiot”. Now I learned when I was about five years old not to let words hurt my feelings. You know, “Sticks and stones can break my bones, but words can never hurt me.” Last week, Will Smith taught me that there will always be verbal haters out there. He stated, “People can’t do something themselves, they want to tell you, you can’t do it. Don’t ever let someone tell you you can’t do something.” Now dems some Godly words, Mr. Smith!
So yes, I realize that there will always be people that disagree with me. I’m okay with that. After all, I’m not, you know, God, so I don’t expect to be right all of the time. As long as I’m right far more than I’m wrong, then this blog will continue to be useful to most people. But then I looked at who sent me the comment, and that’s when my world started to crumble. The comment of “You’re an idiot” came from, Oh my…GOD!!! I kid you not. The guy who sent me the comment signed his name as “God”. And his email address domain was heaven.com, the associated URL was http://www-dot-church-dot-com (this stuff is way too good for me just to be making it up!), and even the number of words he used were just so…so God-like — Three. (1) You’re; (2) an; (3) Idiot. No doubt a subtle reference to the holy Trinity. And even though I’m an “idiot”, I am still capable of counting to three. Oh “God”, you are so clever!
I mean if Joe from San Francisco, Arturo from Mexico City, Noel from Holland, or Marisa from Chile had called me an idiot, I would have laughed it off. I mean, I know that I penned one of my earlier blogs with a title of “I’m Not Looking So Smart” but that was just a little dose of self-deprecating humor, “God”. Really. My self-esteem isn’t lacking and I wasn’t giving you a license to pile on top of that comment. But when “God” says “You’re an idiot”, one has to take the comment much more seriously. I figured there were two ways to look at the comment. The glass half-full interpretation.that being called anything, even an “idiot” by “God”, was an honor of the highest kind. Or the glass half-empty interpretation, that “God” was calling for me to be more introspective regarding the quality of my investment blog entries. So I seriously thought to myself, “Does God really read my blog?” and everything I pondered pointed to an unequivocal “YES”.
But then, upon further investigation, my hopes that I was a recipient of divine intervention were dashed to pieces. My heart broke when I discovered that “God”’s real name was “xxxx xxxxx.” ( don’t worry “God” I know that you need your identity to remain anonymous) and that he works for the New Jersey Higher Education Network in Suite 5100 in Central Avenue in New Jersey, USA. I thought to myself, “This can’t be the real God”.
No offense to anyone that lives in New Jersey, especially since I’m from Philly myself and have great affinity for the East Coast, but come on. Of all the places “God” could choose to work and live, why would he choose New Jersey, especially when New York is just a step away? But rather I think that God would choose to live somewhere a little bit more like heaven. Perhaps the island of Rodrigues, legendary for the hospitality of its natives; the Seychelles archipelago, where crystal waters and world class diving abound; or even Fernando de Noronha off the luxurious coast of Brasilia, where legions of dolphins put on spectacular shows every dawn?
But still, since it was “God”, I felt compelled to reply, so without further ado, here it is.
“Dear ‘God’, Buddha, Allah, & the Big Guy in NJ. (just covering all my bases here),
I really feel as though I have a right to evolve my blog in several years or perhaps even earlier than that, to the point where I am not discussing the U.S. markets that frequently. After all, one of the reasons I decided to start writing this blog was because so many of my friends in Europe, Asia, and Latin America asked me to write about investment opportunities outside of the United States.
Furthermore, personally, my desire in writing this blog was to provide information that readers will not find through mainstream media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and so forth. Since these publications focus so much on the U.S. stock markets and economy, and will always continue to do so, I already feel as though this ground is well covered. Therefore, I humbly ask your permission to write more and more about emerging markets and other established markets that I feel offer better risk/reward setups to build wealth than the more developed markets that perhaps might be stagnant and hiding lots of problems underneath the surface.
I know that currently, the short term behavior of major European, South American, and Asian markets still follow the lead of the U.S. markets and that is why I continue to lead my blogs occasionally with stories about the U.S. markets. But times, they are a changing. The Euro is now a more consistent and reliable global currency than the dollar, and there is a palpable desire of major countries here in Asia to develop a single Asian currency in the future that would unite all Asian economies. Furthermore, the PPP (purchasing power parity) of emerging markets has grown tremendously and at current rates, will create the emergence of other economic powers in the next decade. These very changes will lead to the divergence of short-term behavior of non-U.S. markets from that of the U.S. markets in the future. In fact, just as people fear the creation of separate internet networks that may break up the world wide web into independent regional webs in the future, the global economy, to a much lesser extent, may evolve in that direction as well.
If this happens, even to a diluted degree, then people will no longer be able to extrapolate the short-term behavior of other global markets from my comments about the U.S. markets. Thus, it will become necessary for me to increasingly address other global markets separately. And that’s just simple mathematics. If I discuss non U.S. markets more, then I will necessarily have to spend less time discussing the U.S. markets. I was born in the U.S., I love my Philadelphia Eagles, AI and the Sixers, the Roots, Philly Cheesesteaks (by the way, I know that I’ll probably stir up some more contentious comments with this declaration, but I prefer Pats over Genos!), DKNY, and the Chapelle Show- so my God, it’s not prejudice! Really! I just want to provide information that people really can use to build wealth.
But to build real wealth, one has to do the research to forecast these trends before the major media picks up on them. One has to invest in markets before they become popular and you exit them when mania surrounds them. But of course, you know that already, because you’re “God”. “God” (from New Jersey at the church.com), I wanted to write you this letter because you seemed upset by my choice to start writing more about non-U.S. investment opportunities in my blog. Have you seen Bad Boys II? I think a little “woosaaaah” therapy might help. In fact, I always wondered what nationality God would be. Now I know.
Because “God’ became so upset over my opinion that the importance of U.S. stock markets will wane over time as a means to build wealth as emerging markets grow, or for that matter, as other developed markets grow, “God” must be American. I’m just glad that “God” wasn’t an ex-KGB Russian. Considering my recent blog about my reluctance to buy Russian stocks right now, if “God” had been ex-KGB, he REALLY would have been mad!
However, maybe I should really start discussing the U.S. markets fairly infrequently now instead of allowing my blog to “evolve” to that point.
Why?
Over the last 25 years, from 1986- 2005, even among only developed markets, how many times was the U.S. market the number one performing market?
ZERO. That’s right. Not one time in the last twenty five years was the U.S. the top performing market even among a subgroup of just developed markets. And I would guess that for the next five to ten years, the U.S. will not crack the number one rank as well.
Expand the group of global stock markets to include emerging markets and the performance of the U.S. markets against all global markets plunges way down the list. But you’re “God” so of course, you know that already. But really, there is no need to throw a fit about your ideal of American supremacy “God”. There are a million other sources out there for you to read if you still want to learn about investment opportunities in the U.S. and there probably will be for a long long time. So doesn’t this all make sense now, “God”? I really hope so.”
Respect,
J.S.
p.s. Because I am a contrarian at heart, just as when mania hits the public regarding certain assets, it’s a sure sign to sell, when “God” calls you an idiot, I actually find that to be quite positive — so thanks God. I must be doing something right.
