Edit: Sorry, the original publication stated a prediction for the end of August, but this was a typo that has been corrected the following day after publication. The prediction is for the end of July.
I know it’s been a while since I’ve posted here with most of my articles now published on my Substack newsletter at skwealthacademy.substack.com. But as a gift to those that still check in to this blog from time to time, here is my very cursory analysis in response to the recent Standard Chartered UK BTC price prediction of $50k by the end of the year. Tim Draper, of notoriously incorrect issued BTC price predictions, predicted a $250K BTC price by this time at the start of this year, another prediction that has already been proven comically wrong.
However, I have always maintained that predicting a price 6 months out is a clown’s game, and given the factors that can accurately predict BTC’s price that don’t allow for a 6-month prediction let alone a 3-month prediction, even such intermediate term BTC price predictions have zero utility to any investor. When I read Draper’s January price prediction of $250k by this June, based upon BTC’s halving event in 2024, I laughed because it illustrated a complete lack of understanding for the factors that drive BTC’s short-term to intermediate-term price as well as a complete ignorance of the MIBC BTC price manipulation game.
But let’s give credit to a BTC analyst that issued a correct prediction at the start of this year, UK finance professor Carol Alexander’s. Professor Alexander correctly predicted a first half BTC price of $30K, though the accuracy of her $50k year end BTC price prediction remains to be determined. Even though she was spot on with her $30K price prediction by mid-year, it still was not based upon anything credible, as her prediction was based upon buying by the whales at the end of 2022 and the start of this year, and thus, like Draper’s prediction, reflected an ignorance of the power the MIBC wields to make BTC prices fluctuate significantly in the short to intermediate term.
I would levy the same criticism against a $10k an ounce by year-end gold price prediction. It’s not even about whether lady luck makes such predictions come true or not, as that’s all such predictions are when they are predicated upon 100% pure speculation that has no better chance of coming true than pulling a random price out of a hat. This is why I state that even should such predictions come true, whether for BTC, gold, oil or any other financial asset, they have zero value. Furthermore, you already have my provided top and bottom end BTC prices here for this month of July 2023. However, unless the BRICS springs a surprise launch (not announcement, but launch) of their gold-backed currency this month, BTC prices, at the end of this month, are far more likely to dip under $30k and after that, under $28k from its current price of slightly more than $31k. This is solely a prediction for July. When August arrives, then I will analyze metrics for August.
In fact, there is even a chance that it will hit both my high-end range predicted for this month and then sell-off to hit my low-end range at the end of this month. Furthermore, the contrarian BTC mouthpiece, former MicroStrategy CEO and current Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, recently tweeted that MicroStrategy purchased an additional 12,333 BTC at an average price of $28,136 per bitcoin between April 29, 2023, and June 27, 2023. Since Saylor has been behind some of the worst BTC buy calls ever, repeatedly purchasing hundreds of millions of BTC at near peak high prices instead of at intermmitent lows, this act alone should guarantee that BTC falls below Saylor’s most recent average purchase price by the end of this month.
