November 7, 2006 –
I have never believed that Peak Oil was real despite the plethora of experts that claim its legitimacy. In life, the majority of people will believe something as long as enough talking heads repeat the same thing and enough newspapers proclaim it as “fact” or “inevitable”. In fact, you can find such instruction in many military manuals —
To get a nation, or even a world, to believe something, even if it is not true, print it in the major media. Then the whole world will believe it if it is in print.
I have always formulated my opinions by trying to understand the origins of such claims rather than accepting something as truth because I heard about it on TV or read about in a paper. But the reality is that many people are lazy and would rather have someone else tell them what to think. In December, 1999, a great majority of people all over the world believed in Y2K because the media made us believe in its catastrophic inevitability — a catastrophe that never happened. I believe Peak Oil is the same.
However, I do believe that global warming is real. In fact, the reality, and not they myth, of global reality is changing the Peak Oil situation. As I mentioned in my previous blog, there has been extensive melting of the polar ice cap that is opening up previously unexplorable areas to exploration. This is not just true for mineral reserves but also for natural gas and oil reserves. This is Reality #1.
Reality #2 is that 375 billion of oil reserves are believed to lie beneath the polar ice cap. That would increase world oil reserves by 1/3rd.
Reality #3 is that with improved 4-D seismic imaging technology that can locate oil reserves much more efficiently and accurately, we will soon know if those estimates are accurate.
Reality #4 is that we’ve had technology for decades that would be able to replace oil as a source of energy. There has always just been too much money and power consolidated in the big oil companies for any of them to prosper. If push comes to shove and we need them to be developed, these alternative energy models will not only thrive but prosper.
Reality #5 is that improved technology within the oil industry is making drilling to depths that were previously unfathomable, well, fathomable. This makes reserves previously inaccessible – accessible. And now global warming is increasing the amount of accessible reserves. Peak oil is based upon static reserves being depleted over time. With possibly 375 billion of oil reserves now accessible, that calculation significantly changes.
