Now that I’m living in Mexico, it seems apropos to explore a thinker like the legendary Subcomandante Marcos, who is a folk hero among the poor in Mexico.
Here is the overarching problem with financial media. Unless you are a parrot for the MIB (Military Industrial Banking) complex, it will be extremely rare that you receive any type of fame or notoriety as the “go to analyst” for your area of expertise. This means, almost unconditionally, the smartest minds, willing to dig underneath the propaganda of mass media reporting, will be unknown, or at best, little known names. For example, I’m sure there are other Bitcoin analysts, other than myself, that called all of Bitcoin’s price tops in March of 2021 and November 2021 (after which prices crashed 50% both times), and also most recently as it went over $48k at the end this past March. I just don’t know of any because anyone that is a realist and understands what truly influences BTC prices will never see the light of day on heavily watched media channels like MSNBC, Bloomberg, and Reuters, not to mention the perpetually wrong Bitcoin “analysts” on YouTube with millions of followers. For example, as an example of just one of dozens of BTC analysts on YouTube with massive followings that truly don’t even understand the nonsense they are slinging, you can click this link (and to understand why they are slinging nonsense, just ensure that you read my substack article published later this week titled “Understanding and Surviving the Changing New World Order.” Also apologies for singling out that YouTuber, as I don’t know who he is, but I just typed “$100,000 Bitcoin” to discover who was still slinging this nonsense of BTC to $100k soon, and his video ranked at the top of the YouTube search results).
If you are an economist, and you dare challenge the official narrative of Central Bankers, it is well known within the industry that such dissent is a complete career killer and that you will never be published within the most important economic journals necessary to advance your career and will also never achieve escalation up the academic career ladder. Thus, if you wanted to further your career, you were required to parrot the clown narratives of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of “transitory inflation” a few months ago, even if you were 99.99% sure that this was a complete lie. Because I have zero interest in climbing any career ladder, and because I’m beholden to only the truth, I have no obligation to lie to the masses and I’ able to call such narratives exactly for what they are, which is exactly what I did five months ago on this skwealthacademy substack platform.
I called the Central Banker transitory inflation narrative “clownspeak” and a complete distortion of reality. And a few months later, in a recent substack article here, I was able to write freely and criticize all the articles about the Japanese yen crash as just “white noise” designed to “distract us instead of inform us” of much more significant global Forex developments. There is very little value to be extracted from mass financial media reporting, even in reporting of major events like an ongoing crash of a major fiat currency. Why?
Just as career economists are not at liberty to ever dissent with opinions issued by Central Bankers at immediate risk of destroying their upward career mobility, financial analysts that appear on mass media are never at liberty to present the true takeaway points of major events like the Japanese yen crash at the risk of never being invited to speak on mass media channels ever again. And this is even assuming that these analysts understand the true takeaway points of such events, which I doubt that most of them do, as such analysts that appear regularly on mass media channels usually dwell within an echo chamber.
Thus, such vapid analysis is not only typical of most stock analysts, but often can, and does extend into mainstream commodity analysis and cryptocurrency analysis as well. A year ago, in May 2021, before the onset of new Basel III regulations that affected gold, I published an article on my patreon platform that warned my patrons not to buy gold and silver ahead of the adoption of these new regulations in false hopes that gold and silver prices would consequently skyrocket higher, as was a strong narrative present in many articles published on mainstream gold and silver websites at that time. As a follow up to that private article, I published a public article that explained why I had dissented from consensus views that the adoption of Basel III regulations would send gold prices soaring into the stratosphere. Instead, a provided a dissenting voice and concluded that the new regulations were much ado about nothing.
A year ago, I stated,
“Basel III regulations are likely to have little to no real effect on gold and silver prices in a positive manner, not even by 1 January 2022 [when more of the regulations were to take effect]”.
And even though gold futures/spot prices finally hit $2,000 by March of this year, thus far, they have been unable to hold this level, and no significant bump in prices above historical nominal (non-inflation adjusted) highs have yet to occur as of May 2022. Needless to say, I am not impressed yet with gold price behavior this year to date and even my prediction for gold and silver prices six months later, at the start of this year, held true.
And whatever unbridled optimism, untampered by reality, exists in the gold arena, multiply that factor by a minimum of ten when it comes to mainstream cryptocurrency analysts (I started researching and writing this article at the start of April, so obviously, as of 10 May, a lot has changed since then). As I stated to open this article, I’ve never seen one lauded cryptocurrency analyst correctly predict even an event as obvious as a massive drop in BTC price before it happened, though there have been now three occasions to do so since Q1 2021.
And this makes following mainstream BTC price predictions, either dispensed by the biggest whales in the community or the analysts with the most followers, about as valuable as the analysis of 31 sell-side big bank analysts that maintained buy ratings on Netflix shares with average future Netflix share price targets of $500 on the day before NFLX shares plummeted from $350 a share to $222 overnight. The very next day most of these JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, UBS, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, etc. sell side analysts scrambled in a mad rush to downgrade their price targets and to flip their buy recommendations to sell, which after the fact, had about as much utility as a raincoat after the appearance of sunny skies follow a three-hour torrential downpour.
But as useless as these NFLX sell side analysts are, that maintained a buy rating up until the day of a massive selloff in NFLX shares, they still have higher utility than most BTC analysts, as at least they issued “sell” ratings after NFLX’s share price plunged to $222, an action that perhaps convinced the most delusional of NFLX hodlers to sell, thereby avoiding the further plunge from $222 a share to its current sub-$190 share price. Think about the systemic levels of arrogance that must exist among banking institutions that not one of these analysts had a sell rating prior to the implosion in NFLX share price in April after NFLX share prices had already crashed by 50% from $700 to $350, and then multiply that arrogance by a factor of ten when it comes to the most prominent mainstream BTC price analysts that issued nothing but “buy the dip” guidance from its recent peak at $69,000 last November all the way up until this month of May.
What About Subcomandante Marcos?
Oh, I almost forgot. How does Subcomandante Marcos’s essays fit into the picture? Though less than half of one percent of people would ever turn to someone like Subcomandante Marcos for deep insights into the world of investing, he is exactly the non-financial, non-corporate personality type whose writings people should actively seek out, simply because of their ability to offer much deeper insights into the global workings of finance and banking than any person entrenched in big banking or big investing for the entirety of their careers. To finish reading the rest of this article, please click here and subscribe to my substack newsletter.
(For those wondering how much content remains in the article published on my substack platform, there are 1,509 more words to this article. I spend an inordinate amount of time digging below the surface of mainstream financial rags to connect dots in ways that cannot be done without intensive research in the provision of my subscription content. For example, to deliver the put option opportunity I just provided on my substack newsletter, half of which we’ve closed out for 143.36% profits, I tracked this opportunity for 18-months before finally discussing it here. Real connection and truth lie in areas of discomfort where most financial analysts dare not venture.)
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