With massive recent volatility in bitcoin prices as of late, what now? First, I apologize for not publishing articles as regularly as usual, but I’ve been experiencing more than my usual obstacles as of late in my journey to freedom that have been demanding my immediate attention. However, that is why I continuously preach that one should always check my news site here at this website, my Odysee channel here (this will be my platform of choice, along with Rokfin, for posting video content moving forward), my podcast here and my patreon platform for exclusive comprehensive financial analysis here during abnormal periods of silence, as at a minimum I try to keep the content flowing in those forums. A lot has happened since my last posted article about cryptocurrencies with bitcoin prices crashing from $64,000 to less than $30,000 and Ethereum crashing from $4,378 to $1,947, both in extremely condensed time frames of only about seven trading days.
And before I forget, of course a very big thank you to all my patrons, whose support has helped me survive my fourteen-month lockdown that has prevented me from returning home but has given me enough direction in my life to know once I can return home, that home will be somewhere completely different than the nation that I have called home for years prior to 2020. In any event, as always, I’ve been keeping my patrons first and foremost updated the most with the most valuable comprehensive analysis of the bitcoin price crash, as I told my transcendent level and higher level patrons that I thought risk at $58,000 per bitcoin was becoming very high and for my benefactor level and higher members, issued a podcast, warning of these risks in deeper detail on 22 April 2021, available on my patreon platform. Lastly, I personally told all my transcendental and higher level member patrons that I would have sold BTC at $58,000 to lock in profits as early as 22 April 2021 in daily videos sent to patrons every week. With that issued guidance, all BTC owners had more than ample time to follow my warning, as BTC hovered in and around the $58,000 to $60,000 price range for the following two weeks before crashing to lows below $30,000.
But even outside of warnings issued on my platform to which anyone can have access for the price of a couple of Starbucks coffees a month, if you regularly visited my news site and YouTube channel, you would have known of these above sentiments because I was very clear that I believed the exuberance of BTC at $58,000 price levels marked very irrational and high risk. Of course, this logically makes sense as I predicted a $40,000 2021 BTC price level in November 2020 when BTC was at $20,000 and if I thought bitcoin prices would reach $64,000 in 2021 as it did, I would have predicted a $60,000 BTC price (which I didn’t). So obviously, my mentality, at a predicted $40,000 high for BTC in 2021, when BTC prices continued to rise to a price that was 50% greater than my predicted 2021 price, would be one of irrationally high risk inherent in holding such an asset.
For gold and silver owners, there are some really big regulatory changes coming down the pipeline very shortly that may send gold, silver and other precious metal prices soaring this summer. I’m not quite as optimistic that these regulatory changes will give an additional “boost” to the upward trajectory of gold/silver asset prices this summer as others. However, one should note that I already had predicted a gold/silver asset price breakout this past April that, so far, the gold/silver/btc price narratives for 2021 are playing out as I’ve predicted. The insane part of the cryptocurrency narrative is that given my inability to release this article on the day I wrote it due to a very stressful personal emergency with which I’ve been dealing (nothing to do with finance), the cryptocurrency narrative has already changed with an additional two days.
However, this proves exactly my point. Though Bitcoin prices and Ethereum prices have bounced very strongly from their respective low prices of slightly north of $31,000 and $1,700 on 23 May 2021 to currently ($40,000 and $2,750 on 25/24 May), much of this bounce, just like the crash, was instigated by a few big whales making very public statements intended to generate a bounce. Again, assets that will crash by more than 50% in price over just a few trading days on the back of claims/statements issued by public figures is not a stable asset or a store of value, but that statement is self-evident despite the inability of some to understand a self-evident point.
Secondly, any speculative belief that generated the current cryptocurrency bounce that has been adopted by cryptocurrency owners/HODLers also reveals an extremely dangerous pattern of investor thinking – making decisions solely based upon the price predictions given by prominent asset holders that are entirely based upon selfish motives of wanting their own asset holdings to recover and nothing more. Does this happen in other asset classes like with specific commodities and stocks? Of course. But for now, I’m discussing this aspect in reference to cryptocurrencies because no other major asset class has experienced so much recent price volatility. Thus, it is most apropos to discuss this aspect in regard to this specific asset class. For example, I read an article scripted by an institution with massive BTC holdings that they “believe” that bitcoin prices will recover just fine, given the history of prior price crashes in 2018 and in 2020, and that the recovery of this price crash should fall in between that of 2018 and 2020 – that it wouldn’t take as long to recover as it did following the 2018 price crash but it neither will be as quick in recovery as it was following the 2020 price crash. Of course, such sentiments are pure speculation and a complete guess and really there is nothing that supports such an outcome as logical. However, because it is hopeful, many people will dangerously use that speculation to drive their own cryptocurrency investing behavior.
Thirdly, people should be acutely aware that I’ve never seen a single big cryptocurrency owner that perpetually issues positive price outlooks after every price crash issue a warning that frontruns a deep price crash. If they are so accurate in predicting future prices, should they have not been able to foresee one price crash, just one in the past of the many that have happened (with some much larger in scale than others of course)? Well, most people say, the fact that they have never been able to foresee a crash doesn’t matter because they seem to be pretty good in predicting price recoveries. Again, this should never be the case, that anyone so good at predicting price recoveries can never predict a single price crash. Those that have been following my silver/gold/platinum price predictions since 2006 know that I’ve provided dozens of correct calls about price spikes AND crashes over the years and have never just been accurate in calling price behavior in one direction only. So why would anyone be only accurate in predicting price behavior to the upside but never to the downside?
The answer is actually quite simple. People (not analysts, but people) that only unidirectionally predict correct price behavior to the upside have such a track record because their delusions only allow them to ever think that the asset price can rise and never fall. Therefore, they have never issued a warning that pre-dated a price crash on a timely basis because they never believe a price crash will happen and therefore never see all the warning signs that exist of such an event prior to it manifesting. And though they may issue a few accurate predictions of price recovery along the way, I don’t even believe that anyone should put faith in those predictions as well. Why? Well anyone that is eternally optimistic or pessimistic about asset price behavior is obviously delusional and will always discount one side of price behavior, already a very dangerous mindset for any investor to embrace. Secondly, many times, because asset manias are driven by emotion rather than fundamentals, a quick recovery will often manifest in price simply because so many emotional investors re-engage the market to drive prices rapidly higher after a considerable price crash because of incessant “buy the dip” proclamations all throughout the dip with nearly zero warnings of “caution!” during the dip.
For example, with bitcoin price behavior recently, once it began falling from recent highs of $64,000, I heard proclamations that from BTC community members that the dip to $50,000 should definitely be purchased because $50,000 was the low and bitcoin prices would quickly recover to new highs of $70,000 in less than two weeks and that $50,000 was the last chance to buy BTC at a “low” price. I heard the exact same proclamations at $45,000, $40,000 and $35,000. And they were all wrong. These same buy the dip proclamations at around $30,000 may turn out to be right, but again, one can’t state “buy the dip” and be wrong about the first four significant dips and then be right about a fifth “buy the dip” proclamation and ignore the four wrong statements while bragging about the one (perhaps) correct one. Or at least one shouldn’t if one has any ethics.
Fourthly, you know an asset class is hot, despite any massive price dips, when well-known YouTubers with zero financial background are parading as financial analysts and providing their takes on BTC prices. I’m someone that graduated from a top 3 ranked university in the US (at the time I graduated), an MBA program, that has years of experience as a Private Banker and a Private Wealth Manager at some of the biggest banks and Wall Street firms in the world, yet I don’t ever fake being a bitcoin price analyst. Yet dozens of YouTubers that have zero real world financial market experience are now producing videos for millions of their subscribers parading as a cryptocurrency expert. It took me a decade of analyzing gold and silver derivative markets on a daily basis and analyzing data through multiple price crashes and spikes to gain confidence in my analysis of future price trends in that asset class. I would certainly never claim expertise in an asset (bitcoin) that has only had functional derivative markets since the end of 2017.
The amount of bad information online is horrifyingly abundant. If we look at the opposite side of the equation, are there loads of people with zero real world experience providing negative outlooks on BTC’s future price in which they are parading their speculative opinions as fact-based? Of course. But loads of bad information on both sides of the equation is precisely why I vehemently argue that every BTCowner should be a trader and never a HODLer, and that every BTC owner should learn to become the only analyst they trust. Why? As a trader, and not a HODLer, one will have no emotional attachment to the direction of bitcoin prices as one will make money just as easily from price crashes as during price spikes. Having zero emotional attachment to price direction thus allows one to think more clearly and be ten times more rational in one’s thinking than a HODLer and consequently more likely to making right decisions in the future versus making decisions primarily based upon hope.
And for the reasons I’ve stated in this article, one should always study manipulation patterns, as this should be your primary analysis that drives a decision of whether or not to “buy a dip”. Chartists that are telling you to buy at this support level or sell at that resistance level do not realize that charts are “painted” all the time, especially in cryptocurrencies. Technical charting analysis is not useless, but should only be used as a secondary tool of analysis, not a primary tool, in a global financial world in which asset prices are so heavily manipulated. In other words, technical charting analysis should only be used to confirm or reject what price manipulation analysis is telling you is true. I don’t know of one BTC owner that will not agree that Elon Musk’s tweets triggered the most recent price sell-off in BTC with accusations of price manipulation that are accurate. I also do not know of one intellectual analyst that will tell you that charting analysis is not a robust tool to analyze asset price behavior in assets that are heavily price manipulated. Thus, any person of intellect would conclude that charting analysis during extremely volatile price periods that are a consequence of price manipulation should be ignored.
The only conclusion is to never follow the guidance of unidirectional price predictors of any asset class – crytpocurrencies, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estates, etc. – because the only 100% guarantee from doing so is that they will mislead you at some point into bad and significantly damaging investment decisions. If a person lacks a track record of making an accurate call of a significant price crash in an asset that you own in which significant price crashes (multiple) have happened, then never follow that analyst as he or she is a unidirectional analyst. If you do, then you will never see the next potential price crash in cryptocurrencies when they happen (or a possible reversal and continuing downturn in cryptocurrency prices when they happen if this current bounce turns out to only be a temporary bounce). Are there similarly misguided people whose guidance you should never follow in the precious metals world? Sure. I will complete this article with just one of these many types of people. If you follow a precious metals analyst that has written articles about how inflation in the US is finally booming, this means that this person is delusional and only follows “official” State inflation statistics and cannot understand how soaring inflation in the US dollar has existed for years which would have made gold/silver solid purchases for years as opposed to just now because of the false mainstream narrative that higher inflation rates are finally here (because high US inflation rates have existed for decades and have not just “arrived” in 2021. This conclusion is comical).
