Out of control oil prices in 2022? That’s what all the big bank analysts seem to think. JP Morgan analyst Marco Kolanovic stated in a note to clients in November 2021 the following, “$115 a barrel [oil] estimate is actually conservative because it excludes ‘expensive’ assets like central bank balance sheets and the Nasdaq stock exchange, the strategists said. If they’d been included, that would imply a median oil price in the range of $300 to $500 a barrel.” In response to Kolanovic’s delusional price predictions that were plastered all over the media, the Russian government jumped on board and issued their own $300 a barrel for crude oil price prediction last month as well. In defense of JP Morgan, they stated Kolanovic’s median oil prediction of $300 – $500 a barrel oil did not reflect the company’s short-term targets for oil, which they revealed as $125 a barrel in 2022. Goldman Sachs analysts concurred with an average crude oil price per barrel prediction of $135 in 2022.
However, as I stated back at the start of March to my skwealthacademy patrons, this is all just a bunch of propaganda, as is the case for almost everything the mass financial media vomits, that is not likely to materialize in my opinion. In a podcast I released on 2 March 2022 to my patrons, I stated that I thought it was approaching time to take profits on oil after I provided buying guidance on oil at $57 to $62 a barrel in a 2 December 2021 patron only podcast. However, in the 2 March 2022 podcast, I indicated that my patrons should remain long in oil as long as prices remained above $93 a barrel. Indeed they did, and they eventually rapidly spiked to a high of about $130 a barrel later in March before correcting to the current price observed in the below chart.
Back in March, I also mentioned on my patreon platform that I believed any upside breakout from a symmetrical consolidation pattern that was forming would be a false breakout, meaning that the spike to $130 a barrel that happened would not be sustainable and that prices would then start dropping to the downside. This is what has happened and I still believe, due to reasons I explained to my patrons last month, and contrary to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs analysts, that further significant drops in oil prices are ahead (i.e. I believe that we will see a breakdown in the above chart below $95 a barrel oil).
Thus, all the big bank $125 to $135 average crude oil price forecasts for 2022 will likely turn out to be nothing more than their usual propaganda disseminated through their usual media channels designed to lure oil traders into assuming long positions in futures markets when oil was trading at $110 to $115 a barrel. And what would be the specific intent of such propaganda? To harvest all the initial margins anted up in the establishment of long positions in futures markets as a result of their heavily publicized oil price forecasts as they watch oil prices go south and sink. I’ve observed big bankers do the same thing they’re currently doing in oil futures markets dozens of times in gold and silver futures markets with issuance of higher gold and silver price forecasts right before they slam prices lower. Why traders have learned to identify such tactics as targeting them as marks to separate them from their money is beyond me. But such is the powerful influence of propaganda disseminated through mass media distribution channels that reach millions.
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