Today financial guidance comes from a wide gamut of TikTok millenials, YouTubers, Wall Street executives and even ego-centric billionaires. How do you determine who to trust for financial guidance? That has been a question that has plagued retail investors since the beginning of financial markets in a sea of snake oil salesmen and sharks. How do you determine who is merely charming you to exploit your naivete and who is sincere in providing solid financial guidance? I’m here to provide a little help in this process today.
Far too often, people pick the wrong people to trust for financial guidance. They listen to a billionaire’s guidance in cryptocurrencies, well, because they’re a billionaire. And it would be one thing to do so if they built their billions in cryptocurrency investing. But all the prominent billionaires making the rounds giving poor advice on the msm about cryptocurrencies made their billions in a completely unrelated field. Consequently, listening to them for bitcoin trading advice is foolishness that rivals turning to a hip hop icon for stock market advice when the hip-hop icon made his billions in the music industry. Or even worse, a trend that has grown among millennials during the lockdown, seemingly overnight, is seeking advice from pretend “gurus”. Know-nothing teenagers pretending to be day trading expert have been providing advice on YouTube and TikTok videos with technical charts that give them the appearance of legitimacy (just like putting on an expensive suit does, but has no bearing on the reality of the situation) and have gained enormous cult followings in serving as the blind leading the blind into financial disaster. And in the rare instances YouTube and TikTok advice did not implode in a ball of flames and financial gnashing of teeth, these fly-by-night financial “gurus” still continue to exert a lot of psychological damage on the masses as they lead the blind into thinking that their lucky guidance was expertise.
However, as all of us firmly rooted in reality all know, everyone is lucky in the financial world until they’re not, meaning those that mistake luck for expertise are destined to loss all the paper gains they may have now, no matter how enormous they may be, while only the real experts will keep a hold of their gains. So is there no one online worth following? That’s not what I’m saying. However I AM stating that the vast majority of online financial gurus are fakers whose advice is not worth their weight in salt. For example, given the enormous cult-like popularity of billionaire Michael Saylor with bitcoin owners (bitcoin traders, however, think Saylor is foolish in many of his stated sentiments), the last two bitcoin analysis pieces I provided to benefactor level skwealthacademy patrons indisputably proved the foolishness of assigning anyone a cult-like guru status. In part one of my two part bitcoin analysis series, available exclusively to skwealthacademy patrons (benefactor and higher levels), I discussed the indicators that all bitcoin traders and HODLers should be following to understand short-term btc price movements and where they may be heading. I also discussed in detail why I was positive Michael Saylor understood zero about the predictive indicators for bitcoin prices and was following the wrong fundamental and technical indicators that more than 99% of people do. In Part 1, I stated there was zero reason to believe bitcoin prices would go higher once they reached $40k earlier this month and that another pullback in prices was likely (you can see this patreon only post at this link by just scrolling down all the posts to the one dated 13/14 June, you can also see that I posted Part 2 of this btc analysis on 21/20 June).
However, Saylor purchased another 13,005 bitcoins for a total of $489M at a price per bitcoin of $37,617. Had Saylor merely followed the indicator I discussed in Part 1 of my series, he would have known that the dip was not over at $37 to $38k as my indicator did not flash a buy signal until yesterday at the earliest, at a price of less than $29k. So just by understanding what indicators to ignore and what indicators to follow, Saylor could have purchased either his 13,005 bitcoins at a savings of $112,000,000 had he merely followed the guidance I gave in my bitcoin analysis or he could have purchased 16,862 btc, or nearly 27% more BTC with the same purchasing price. Furthermore, only the most naive of naive would not understand that Saylor’s $5M BTC price prediction is not a shameless tactic called “selling your book”. Thus, following the guidance of people with the most followers or the most media appearances is just not wise as rarely do any of these people have the expertise about the subjects upon which they pontificate.
There is a saying that it takes money to make money which is why billionaires’ returns always seem the most impressive because they throw around billions to make billions. However, it does not mean they are the best people to follow when formulating your own investment strategies. Instead, find someone that has a long track record of public documented predictions for which the majority of predictions have come true and follow these people instead. Even though I reserve the most valuable analysis and predictions behind a pay wall for my patrons, decades of my predictions are documented and available over decades of time on my news site here, dozens of which have come true. One needs to be wise enough to know that screenshots showing massive gains can be easily photoshopped, often are forged, and definitely do not serve as proof of someone’s expertise.
Last year, before global lockdowns went into effect, I wrote an article on my news site predicting that 14 specific stocks would crash in share price due to lockdowns that would spread to the rest of the world. Of these 14 stocks I predicted would crash, 13 of them crashed by 20% to 37% in share price just months after my prediction, which you can confirm here. You can also confirm many other predictions that I made over the years that also came true on that same website as well as other predictions I made that did not come true, as I have not taken down my wrong predictions. But you will see if you review my articles for the past ten years that any predictions I made were overwhelmingly correct. And if you join my patreon, you can see comments from current patrons that also prove the value of my financial analysis as valuable and overwhelmingly correct as well.
So find someone that has a documentable and public track record of being correct and make sure the prediction was truly correct before following that person’s guidance. For example, I once saw a fawning journalist interview a bitcoin prognosticator and praise him over his correct bitcoin price prediction of a doubling in price within a specific six-month timespan. And while this prediction came true, and I don’t want to take away from this prediction technically being correct, here is what actually happened for that prediction to come true. Bitcoin prices actually doubled one month after this person’s prediction, then doubled again, and then crashed by 50% to arrive at his doubling in price in six-month’s time prediction. During this time, the prognosticator never predicted another doubling in price nor did he predict that once btc’s price far exceeded his price prediction that it would crash by 50%. Thus, one can only conclude that his correct price prediction was more a product of luck than accurate prognostication. So even when price predictions come true one needs to be careful on how much credibility to assign to that prediction.
For example, I’m happy to critique myself in this manner. If you go to my YouTube channel, skwealthacademy, you will see a btc price prediction I posted in November 2020, with btc trading at $20k, that btc prices would double in 2021 to $40k. While btc prices indeed doubled to $40k in 2021, they soared well past my prediction to $64k, so while I would give myself credit in this manner for predicting a big btc price spike higher before it happened, I would not give myself credit for accuracy, as being off by more than $24k in peak price for 2021 is not particularly accurate. And as predictions always change, I haven’t yet issued any prediction that btc price will top its to-date high of $64k this year and if I don’t issue such a prediction in the future and btc prices end of exceeding that price this year, then I will admit my $40k prediction issued in November 2020 was no big feat. A good prognosticator needs to be able to continue to predict big upside AND big downside movements in the future. Otherwise previous predictions that came true should be credited to fortune and luck over expertise.