Just click this link to listen to my podcast about five of the dumbest claims about bitcoin not only continually professed to be true about BTC by those that make frequent mass media appearances, but also widely believed by cryptocurrency investors. What makes these five of the dumbest claims about bitcoin is that each one of them is incredibly easy to prove as wrong.
Furthermore, in this podcast you will learn that had prominent BTC advocate Michael Saylor, the CEO of Microstrategy, followed my buying and selling opinions offered on BTC on my Patreon platform since the end of 2020, he would have added $26.4 billion to his cash reserves for Microstrategy instead of sitting on a loss of $1 billion and HODLing a little under $3 billion of BTC right now. This figure represents an 8.8Xs multiple of his BTC portfolio value at the current time .
Thus, just to arrive at this mark going forward, a mark he could have easily achieved by abandoning his “never sell BTC” thesis and by managing the enormous price volatility of BTC properly, Saylor now needs a minimum price of $176,000 BTC to materialize. And if this happens, Saylor will finally arrive at this mark. Still, utilizing my strategy, even if he purchased BTC at $20k now with the windfall of $26.4 billion of cash he could’ve possessed, and BTC prices eventually move to $176k (which at the moment, I don’t believe it ever will), in this hypothetical scenario, Saylor would then be holding more than $232 billion in BTC, NOT just $26.4 billion. Thus, any way you slice the pie, his strategies have made zero sense.
On the topic of gold and silver, I predicted, after an initial immediate bump higher in prices following the announcement of the Fed’s increase of the Fed Funds rate of 75 basis points that catapulted gold to nearly $1,858 and silver to $21.96, that silver would collapse back down to $21 and gold back to $1,800 in just two days. When that prediction was wrong for gold and did not bear out for silver, I extended the timeline for that prediction to come true at the start of this week until today, on a day silver was still hovering near the $22 mark.
In fact, when I extended my silver prediction to the end of this week, I specifically stated that the extension was not based upon just giving it four more days to come true (as Monday was a US holiday and silver markets did not open until Tuesday of this week), but I specifically emphasized that I was giving my gold and silver predictions four more days to come true based upon metrics I studied over the weekend that informed me the $21 level for silver was still in play, even though, as I stated above, silver was still trading at $21.94 this past Tuesday. Since then, silver has crashed by a whopping 5.15% in four trading days to $20.81, and though gold has not yet fallen to my predicted level of $1,800, I had stated earlier in the week that my low predicted mark of $1,800 I mentioned the prior week was still in play for 13 June – 17 June 2022.
And that Monday, on 13 June, 2022, gold crashed by $74 from a high of $1,879 to a low of $1,805, almost hitting my predicted $1,800 mark. Then, later in the week, when gold prices started rising from market open on 15 June, I predicted that gold prices would continue to rise into the announcement and then crash back to $1,800 again by the end of the week. So my gold prediction that was incorrect was my second gold price prediction of the week. However, the important takeaway point of the above, which includes both correct and incorrect price predictions, including one that is still fairly off as I publish this article, with gold still trading at $24 an ounce higher than my predicted price level for the end of this week, is the following:
I have witnessed analysts predicting outrageous BTC/gold/silver far into the future nearly every single week for years on end, and of these thousands of predictions I have heard, not one has ever come true. My above initial prediction was one that spanned 2 ½ days of trading. And though both my predictions for gold and silver prediction didn’t come true within the two-day timeline I provided for them to come true, at the start of this week, I extended the timeline for those predictions for four additional days.
And during this time, my silver prediction came true while my gold prediction has not as of yet (it still has the end of today to come true). And I’ve repeatedly made accurate predictions within a very condensed time frame for many years on asset prices, because accuracy in predictions is only possible, in my opinion, by throwing out technical chart analysis and digging deep underneath the surface to observe the activity of the large traders in these markets. If you’re interested in my asset price predictions, I provide my predictions for price ranges for gold and silver every single week on my Patreon account.
It is my strong belief that asset price predictions based upon technical charting analysis, besides day trading, have very little utility. Furthermore, the “art” of providing asset price predictions, based upon technical charting analysis, for time frames of 3 months, 6 months, or multiple years out is always going to fail. I’ve never offered an asset price prediction that was 3 months into the future, let alone even half a year out for any asset. Imagine the complete absurdity of doing this though we’ve been duped into believing that predictions like “Bitcoin will be $50,000 by 24 August 2022!” and “Gold will be $3,000 by the end of 2023!” are competent financial analysis, even though such predictions are on the level of crystal ball quackery. I’ve never tried to predict asset prices far into the future because I’m fairly certain that my track record of success in engaging in this type of financial quackery would be 0%, and if, by some miracle, such predictions came true, it would solely be due to 100% luck and certainly not replicable with any type of accuracy and consistency.
On the occasions I make asset price predictions, my predictions normally never extend further out than 1-2 weeks as the metrics I use usually do not allow for a prediction further out than this time frame. Thus, as my warning to anyone reading this, anytime you hear a gold/silver/crypto price prediction “to the moon” that is two months, three months, or a year out, one should understand that these types of predictions have a 0% chance of coming true due to proper financial analysis, are of zero utility, and should never influence your buying or selling behavior in any asset.