Do you understand the scripted investment game between the Takers and the Givers? If you’re wondering that this means, then (1) you most likely are unaware that a scripted investment game exists; and (2) you likely are being fleeced repeatedly due to your lack of understanding of how the scripted investment game is played.
Most investors, because they listen to false fundamental narratives espoused by “experts” in mass financial media, whether about bitcoin, gold and silver, the US S&P500 or other commodities, invest on false narratives, that really have little basis in reality, as the driving force behind their investment decisions. In some cases, this is okay, as delusional perception drives asset prices. In other cases, this can go horribly wrong, if the investment industry has created a delusional perception to drive temporary price behavior in one direction so they can take massive bets in the opposite direction that will only handsomely pay off for them. As long as we can identify the arbitrage opportunities created by the differences between perception and reality that drive immediate to short-term asset price behavior, and therefore pinpoint when to enter and exit, we can earn some enormous investment yields. Just because a scripted investment game exists does not mean we, the retail investor, cannot benefit from it.
But, our ability to do so completely hinges upon our understanding that an investment industry perception game is being played. Many, in fact, I would say most investors, are completely unaware that such a game is even taking place. As a consequence, they are constantly herded like sheep by an Australian shepherd dog to execute investment behavior in exactly the manner desired by the herders (the institutional investment firms). Of course, such behavior of the masses may appear to benefit the masses at first (think the MBS product of the mid-2000s that rose initially as the investment industry marketed them as AAA products before they completely collapsed in 2008). However, in the investment perception management game, the Takers always eventually swoop in to pick off the sheep one by one for easy profits.
Can you identify other assets right now that currently appear to be very strong profitable investments as a result of this perception management game, but that will eventually collapse as the Takers dismantle the illusion and swoop in like vultures to clean up the resulting detritus? (if not, keep reading for the answer)
In the scripted investment game, there are Givers and Takers. I call the Givers the investors whose investment behavior is so easily manipulated by the Takers, because the Givers are so easily convinced to deposit their money into the hands of the Takers. I call those that reap these profits, often by unethical tactics they play in the management perception game the Takers for self-evident reasons.
The Takers of the investment industry play both a long-term management perception game (as in the MBS market) and also a short-term management perception game. Most retail investors will never have the stomach to play the long-term management perception game because it often requires massive losses before the massive losses transform into massive wins (as it is near impossible to perfectly time the valleys and peaks, and entering a trade that you know will pay off a little early can lead to massive losses, as happened to some of the biggest winners in the MBS management perception game in the mid-2000s). Even in the short-term management perception game, it is extremely difficult to call exact bottoms and tops, because doing so requires, in my opinion, a minimum of a decade studying the game. However, it is these arbitrage differences between perception and reality in the short-term game, if played properly, that can yield stunning profits very quickly.
For example, recently, on my patreon platform, we just divested of about two dozen commodity stocks that traversed the sectors of agriculture, precious metals, industrial metals and energy. However, for a good portion of these stocks I initially decided to provide buying guidance on my patreon platform a couple of months ago not because the short-term fundamentals were strong (in one particular sector, the short-term fundamentals were actually weak), but because I understood that the perception management game would play out in a manner that would cause share prices to spike very rapidly in the short term despite short-term fundamentals that did not support such an outcome (click here to see the results of playing this management perception game correctly).
In fact, I’ll discuss how the industry Takers have been playing the Givers like pawns in this sector in a still ongoing management perception game with this sector. In the past few weeks I stumbled across many financial headlines, like this one recently, that touted the surge in uranium stock prices attributable at first, to a threatened US ban on Russian uranium reports, and then later, on a threated Russian ban on uranium exports. These reports of threatened significant fall-offs on uranium demand and then on uranium supply both sent spot uranium prices soaring, even though a significant global drop of uranium demand should have, according to supply/demand/price fundamentals, sent spot uranium prices plummeting. Furthermore, if you truly understood the global uranium industry then it was quite easy to spot how the perception management game was being played by the Takers in regard to uranium spot prices. In other words, neither analysis was truthful, but rather being used by the Takers to manufacture profits for themselves, as was obvious by such narratives not existing at all during the first time my patrons played this sector for enormous profits the prior year in 2021 (buying and divesting within a couple months’ time in 2021).
Thus, during our second entry into this sector, all we had to do was piggyback on the Takers’ manufactured perception of spot uranium prices to reap very healthy profits in a few weeks’ time. However, our second entry into this sector was based upon a completely different understanding of the management perception game played by the Takers than the first time we entered this sector in 2021. Solid financial and investing analysis is almost non-existent online these days, as attributing soaring uranium spot prices (because after all it is this behavior driving uranium stock prices in the immediate term) to the Russian threat to ban uranium exports is as valid as stating that a Russian ban on US petroleum imports was responsible for soaring gas prices in America.
Of course, if you watched ignorant, malleable, teeny bopper TikTokers, briefed by White House propagandists to spread said propaganda to their American minions, then you may have fallen for this manufactured narrative, even though a tiny 8% of total US petroleum imports originate from Russia, and the US, as the largest crude oil producer in the world, could easily make up any supply deficit to keep petrol prices in the US stable by increasing production if they so desired. However, no one these days ever looks at the facts behind such perception management narratives; otherwise they would easily discover that most of the narratives vomited by mass financial media headlines, fed to them by the Takers, are never supported by actual facts. Indeed it is horrifying that major podcasts with millions of viewers vomit the same spoon fed Western propaganda about the Russia Ukraine conflict, unfounded in facts, that teeny bopper TikTokers, briefed by White House spokespeople on what narratives to push, vomit. I find the narratives to hate Russian citizens that have nothing to do with this conflict disgusting and it truly takes a weak-minded, easily malleable person to fall for such narratives. I would say the same thing if Canadian, Kiwi, Zimbabwe, Brazilian, Afghani, Syrian, Mexican, or Taiwanese citizens were being smeared by propaganda in the same manner (as the political propaganda perception management game often cannot be separated from the financial perception management game, as the two are often connected in manners that most people do not understand). However, this is a topic for another day, so let’s get back on point.
To prove the most recent narrative about why petrol prices are soaring in America comical, eight months ago, I published an article in which I discussed how Central Banking policies were creating a global disaster by causing all commodity prices to soar to unaffordable prices. In that article, I specifically mentioned that petrol futures and spot prices had already soared by more than 70% yoy, well before the Russians ever invaded Ukraine. Yes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to petrol prices rising further, but that increase happened after petrol prices had been skyrocketing for a long time. The initial spike in petrol prices was the fault of irresponsible Fed monetary policy. However, if you fell for the management perception narrative created by the Takers, one would have falsely blamed 100% of the rise of soaring petrol price on those damn pesky Russians.
Feed a frenzied hateful herd propaganda and they will believe whatever you tell them.
But let’s return to my deconstruction of the manufactured uranium narrative that is making the rounds online now – that uranium stock prices are soaring on Russia’s threat to ban uranium exports. Very recently, uranium spot prices soared to $60/lb, more than triple its price of $19/lb just five months prior. But the only ones that would fall for the propaganda that uranium spot prices will keep soaring to $100/lb would be the same investors that fell for similar recent Russian propaganda predicting $300/barrel crude oil prices. It’s not just the West that plays these perception management games. The East has their Takers that engage in this game as well, and the Takers take every chance they get. That’s what they do.
And despite this recent surge, and despite my guidance to sell our grouping of uranium commodity stocks the week of 11 March, my patrons still sold at prices, even with the “soaring” prices of uranium stocks in recent days, that were very comparable to current prices as of 23 March 2022. But here is the craziest thing of all. When I provided buying guidance for many (not all, but many) of our diverse collection of commodity stocks a few weeks to months ago, my guidance was based not at all upon underlying short-term fundamentals, but solely on how I strongly believed the perception management game executed by the Takers would drive these asset prices in the short-term. And one thing that is certain in the future is that the underlying prices of many commodities will continue to experience wild swings in price in the short to immediate term, not because short-term fundamentals are shifting wildly, but because of the Taker’s execution of the management perception game to drive herd behavior.
However, though most people view wild price volatility that seems to have no rhyme or reason as a terrible thing, for those that understand the Taker’s management perception game, such wild price volatility actually provides multiple opportunities to enter and exit the same assets for incredible compounded profits within short time frames, as demonstrated by the compounded yields of such a strategy I published here. So, regarding uranium stocks, here is the billion dollar question:
Will reality now supersede perception in driving immediate share prices, or will perception continue to be the immediate driver?
One thing is for certain, I will be keeping an eye on how this game plays out not just for uranium, but for gold, silver, and other agricultural commodities, as should you.
To conclude this article, I will answer the question I posed above.
Q: Can you identify other assets right now that currently appear to be very strong profitable investments as a result of this perception management game, but that will eventually collapse as the Takers dismantle the illusion and swoop in like vultures to clean up the resulting detritus?
For current bitcoin investors, don’t fret. As long as you know when to buy and when to sell (or short), this can obviously still be a very profitable game.
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