As every article out of about a dozen that I’ve posted here and on my substack platform since November regarding cryptocurrencies, and many specifically about bitcoin, has firmly dwelled outside the cryptocurrency echo chamber, I would be deeply disappointed if any of my paying subscribers lost a single dollar on BTC since last November 2021. Given that I’ve not issued a single buying opinion on BTC since then and also issued about a dozen warnings NOT to buy BTC since then (and maybe half a dozen NOT to buy ETH), even if one lived inside the cryptocurrency echo chamber, I would still find it hard to believe that anyone would ignore and completely dismiss a dozen warnings that dissented from the consensus crypto community view. For example, as far back as a year ago, on 23 June 2021, right here on this platform, I published this article in which I explicitly stated, “NO buy signs for bitcoin existed on the price dips to $55,000, $50,000, $45,000, $40,000, or even $35,000 [from the highs of $59,000 the previous March]. The first buy sign, as of the analysis I provided on 13/14 June (as discussed on my patreon platform) came on 22 June 2021 on the dip below $30,000.”
And that was the last buy opinion I issued on BTC. Since then, I’ve literally issued more than a dozen warnings on this platform, not only of lower BTC futures prices but also warnings of not to buy. On 17 November 2021, when BTC was still trading at $61,000, and only a few days after I issued my sell opinion of BTC at $66,000 on my patreon platform, I published an article here, explicitly contradicting the opinions of all the BTC analysts that were still encouraging everyone to HODL until $100k to $300k BTC prices materialized in the future. And even though I only provided my sell price and opinion on my patreon platform back then, I could not have been more explicit in my feelings about the future BTC price by titling the article, “Why HODLing for the Good of the Community MEANS HODLing for the Benefit of the Richest Whales and is a Dumb as Rock Strategy.”
As the new year started, for the benefit of all crypto HODLers that ignored my above initial warnings due to being overwhelmed by the FOMO hysteria spread by their crypto colleagues that guaranteed $100k BTC prices ahead, I posted a technical chart stating that a head and shoulders pattern predicted a fall to $22,500 from its then $41,286 price. So, there was still plenty of time, even if one refused to heed my initial warnings that would have helped one avoid the first 40% drop, to avoid the subsequent drop of 42% that materialized since my second issued warning.
And even though I stated in the above article that I was not predicting a drop to $22,500 based upon technical chart analysis as I believed technical chart analysis to be fairly useless in predicting future BTC price movements, I published many articles after this one in which I indicated there was still massive risk of significantly lower BTC prices and in which I provided far more accurate predictions within a specific timeframe of BTC prices dropping to $24,000. To be completely transparent, this is what I wrote in the above article:
“Just to be clear, this is what a break of the neckline would predict [the drop to $22,500], not what I am predicting at the current time. As my patrons know, I never used technical chart analysis when I told them to repurchase bitcoin at sub $30,000 in June 2021 and when I told them to sell at $66,000+ this past November. I am just curious to discover if BTC HODLers engage in confirmation bias by dismissing technical chart analysis when it does not confirm what they want to hear.”
Thus, I acknowledged that I published the above article more as a social experiment to discover if any BTC HODLers would stop holding and sell based upon an ominous technical chart pattern that predicted much lower prices ahead, or if they were so firmly embedded in a negative feedback echo chamber loop that they would also ignore not only my previous warnings to sell, but also a strong warning to sell provided by their favorite analytical tool.
On 27 April 2021, when BTC was still over $40,000, I wrote, “BTC and ETH Investors, Ignore the Critical Lessons of My 2021 DOGE Article at Massive Risk to Your Future Financial Health.” In that article, just to once again reiterate my crystal clear position that a 40% discount in BTC prices was not providing a buy signal for BTC at $40k, I stated, “The massive risk embedded in even the current day $0.47 DOGE coin price, despite its recent price crash, could yield yet much lower prices and higher prices are never guaranteed.” I made this analogy of the current state of BTC prices to the current collapse in DOGE prices, hoping to convince BTC HODLers to stop being naively deluded by the most popular BTC analysts on social media into continued HODLing of BTC at $40,000. I provided my opinion of massive risk still inherent in a $0.47 DOGE, so that the most stubborn of BTC HODLers could track DOGE coin prices from its then $0.47 price to determine if my assessment of massive risk inherent in buying DOGE at $0.47 was correct, or if my detractors, certain of a double in DOGE price that stated I was fear mongering, were correct. DOGE sells for $0.055 today.
And for the benefit of those that misunderstood my risk analogy and dismissed my DOGE/BTC analogy by stating that BTC is far superior to DOGE, I published another article on 12 May 2022 and warned of the “The Crypto Elephant Still Being Ignored During the Latest Crypto Carnage.” Back then, I wrote, “even though all the attention has been focused on the collapse of TerraUSD from its $1 peg to below $0.38 on 12 May, the bigger news of concern was USDT’s temporary breaking of the dollar as well.” I explained in that article why the integrity of USDT, which I believe to be highly questionable, would be integral to future BTC prices.
And if all the above was insufficient to convince cryptocurrency investors to exit their echo chamber (only for those that remained trapped inside one), I published another article, just a few days later, for the most stubborn deniers of facts titled, “Lessons Learned from Luna Coin and TerraUSD’s Collapse that Will Save Your Financial Life.” In that article, I wrote, as BTC was still trading near $40k back then: “Some warning signs appeared a couple days ago of lower possible prices and I believe in discussing all warning signs when they occur, even if I have to wait to see if they strengthen or weaken over the next few days, simply because the voices of those of us that provide warnings about lower prices in crypto markets are drowned out by the ‘crypto to the moon’ crowd 999 times out of 1000.”
Quite literally, between this platform and my patreon platform, I warned of lower BTC prices at $66k, $53k, $50k, $47k, $40k, $35k, $30k and $28k since November of 2021. In addition, I also issued multiple, repetitive warnings to not be deluded by the frauds that kept preaching that BTC HODLing and inhaling hope daily was the best crypto investing strategy. In the above article, I further stated, “I’ve always held to my theory (and yes it still is an unproven theory) that BTC is a Trojan Horse of the Central Bankers to increase acceptance levels of a totalitarian digital only currency world.”
Due to my belief in the very purpose of why BTC was invented, a belief that is in direct opposition to likely 99.9% of BTC HODLers (traders probably don’t give a damn why BTC was invented; they likely just love this recent volatile price action as it has provided them the means to make very quick profits), I have stated many times since BTC reached its short-term peak of $69k last November, that moving forward, I would bet on BTC price dropping to $1 before it topped $300k.
In fact, the hopium has grown even more absurd since this ongoing 65% collapse in BTC prices from late last year. Both Cathie Wood of ARK investments and Michael Saylor of Microstrategy, during this ongoing BTC price crash, have upped their prior absurd BTC price predictions to a $1M BTC price by 2030. Although many people that have heard me state my BTC to $1 before $300,000 prediction believed that prediction to be hyperbolic and not reflective of my real beliefs, let me assure you that it absolutely reflects my true beliefs. That said, let me explain that prediction. My prediction means exactly what it says and nothing more, reflecting my belief that the probability BTC will plunge to $1 is greater than the probability it will rise above $300,000. My prediction is one of probabilities and not of absolute prices. As far as the level to which BTC prices could plunge if BTC violates $20k, I’ll provide that prediction in future publications on my substack platform here, so make sure you follow me there, and not just here as well.