I predict that a massive stock market crash of more than 80% will start at some point this year for both the US S&P500 and the NASDAQ indexes. Jeremy Grantham has made headlines recently with a 50% stock market crash prediction. I, however, firmly believe that an 80% or greater US stock market crash is far more likely to materialize. Recall that before the Federal Reserve came to the rescue to prop up a crashing US stock market during Q1 2020 with hundreds of billions of USD in the o/n reverse repo market, when the S&P500 reached a low of 2,191.86. It was apparent to all that had the US Central Bank not intervened to halt a plummeting US stock market, the crash of the US stock market would have occurred back then, whether or not the Feds kept interest rates at near zero. As a 50% crash from recent highs of 4,818 would only bring the S&P 500 level down to 2,409, a level still well above the lows established during Q1 2020, if the S&P500 were to finally start crashing in earnest in 2022 after more than a decade of artificial bubble creation by the Feds, it is quite probable that the lows would significantly exceed the lows set during the mini-puke of Q1 2020. Furthermore, a strong possibility exists, even if the Feds never even raise interest rates a single time this year (as opposed to their threatened four, now five, raises this year), that the Feds will not be able to prevent a US stock market crash that would surpass the lows of 2,191.86 from Q1 2020.
And for this reason, I believe that Jeremy Grantham’s predicted 50% US stock market is way too conservative. Furthermore, with NASDAQ stocks having enjoyed relentless support over the past decade from momo funds that relentlessly drove the share prices of numerous companies to undeserved bloated stratospheres, I believe that an 80% sell off in NASDAQ stocks comparable to the bursting of the dot com tech stocks in March 2000 is not only possible, but very likely to start at some point over the next 12 to 18 months.
The only unknown is the date of when these two crashes, that will almost undoubtedly exceed the crashes of 2008, will begin. As I’ve stated numerous times in the past, the possibility of the US Central Bank, despite Chairman Jerome Powell’s crazy talk of raising the Fed Funds rate four times this year, is next to zero. Thus, there is a possibility that the Feds could delay the start of this crash towards the latter half of this year by simply speaking a good game and never following through on their words with any kind of action until the latter part of this year. However, as I’ve also stated above, all fraud falls apart, so the selloff in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ could be triggered despite a lack of inaction on the Fed’s behalf in raising the Fed Funds rate. It’s coming, and the crash will be much bigger than anything predicted by Jeremy Grantham, Mike Novogratz or any of the other predictions relegated to just a 20% to 50% crash.Because I don’t have the notoriety of a Jeremy Grantham or a Mike Novogratz, just as my predicted BTC price crashes at $58,000 in April 2021 and at $66,000 in November 2021 received no attention, I don’t expect my US stock market crash predictions to receive much attention either, even if they eventually come true as did my BTC price crash predictions (And no, I still have not issued buying guidance for BTC yet to may patrons since I provided selling guidance last November at $66,000. To find out when I finally think it’s time to buy again, consider following my on patron). Even so, with a deeper crash of more than 50% for US stock markets, it’s just a question of when.
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